German Immigration Policy: Why Germany Can’t Afford to Turn Its Back on Immigrants
From being a beacon of hope for refugees and migrants, Germany now finds itself at a crossroads. Its economic future is under scrutiny amidst a twin challenge of sustaining the undersupplied workforce and soothing the rising public unease over immigration. Skilled migration is crucial if prosperity in Germany is to be maintained, but these growing public unease vibes coupled with increasing far-right sentiments may upset this goal.
Germany's Need for Skilled Migration
After all, Germany was supposed to be the economic powerhouse and bedrock of stability for the Eurozone. The population of working age is shrinking owing to retiring baby boomers, while growth in productivity is slowing down. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund, Germany’s potential growth for the remaining years of the decade is only about 0.4% annually. This is compounded by labour shortages, which means that some 1.6 million jobs were not filled in key sectors like logistics, engineering, and health.
The German government response to these challenges has targeted 400,000 skilled migrants per year. This encompasses “opportunity cards” for those coming from non-EU countries who do not already have a job contract but are allowed to seek employment in Germany.
But despite these attempts, the mood in the country is unforgiving, and anti-immigrant sentiment runs high after a spate of violent crimes blamed on foreign nationals.
Anti-immigration sentiment in Germany rises
Public opinion in Germany about immigration has completely changed over the last couple of years. The tragedy of the knife attack by a Syrian asylum seeker said to have links with the Islamic State has increased fears and calls for tighter immigration controls. The far-right Alternative for Germany-AfD party is capitalising on these anxieties, and it’s believed that they may achieve significant wins in a series of forthcoming regional elections.
This has forced German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to strike a goldilocks balance between tightening asylum rules and encouraging skilled migration. An increasingly precarious balancing act as the public pressure grows.
Alice Weidel, the co-leader of the AfD, has demanded a five-year moratorium on immigration, while the opposition leader Friedrich Merz calls on the government to stop admitting refugees from Afghanistan and Syria. This seems remarkably different from the call of former Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2015: “We’ll manage this”; today, the mood of the nation could hardly be more changed.
Economic Imperatives vs. Public Discomfort
The economic landscape is changing in Germany, and the country has never been in a more desperate state, needing workers. However, this struggle with emerging inflation, a constrained housing market, and an ever-rotting social climate has created huge barriers. For instance, Germany fell from 12th to 15th place in 2024 within the ranking of countries attractive for highly qualified workers, according to the OECD. Another ranking placed Germany 49th out of 53 countries in terms of the attractiveness of a country for expats: bureaucratic red tape, poor digital infrastructure, and perceived unfriendliness are just a few of the main deterrents.
In spite of these difficulties, the government has implemented a number of reforms to make Germany more attractive to skilled immigrants. Only recently, a proposal to grant temporary income tax cuts to skilled foreign workers for their first three years in Germany has been under debate. Incentives are meant to attract them to bring talents that otherwise would not have been available; however, they face criticism from opponents for discrimination against German taxpayers.
Without them, though, economic growth will suffer along with the tax revenues needed to pay for the social safety net. With fewer working-age Germans, the country’s pay-as-you-go pension system dependent on current workers to finance retirees will face greater strain. According to UBS Group AG, German workers’ supply is expected to decline by 8 million by 2050, putting extreme pressure on the pay-as-you-go pension system.
The Way Forward: Welcome Qualified Economic Immigrants
In fact, the future prosperity of Germany is hinged on this very ability to attract and retain skilled migrants. Economic migrants provide a potential to fill labour gaps, drive innovation, and sustain the social welfare system in place in the country. While currently public opinion may run counter to this fact, Germany can hardly afford to turn a blind eye to such economic gains accompanying skilled migration.
It is a country with many attractive features: respect for the rule of law, excellent social safety nets, free public universities, and family-friendly policies, to name a few. To stay competitive and be an attractive destination for highly qualified talent, however, Germany has to solve its internal problems, such as bureaucratic hurdles and a housing crisis, and pay more attention to becoming more attractive to expats in general.
Conclusion
Germany is at a critical juncture in its post-war history. The tightrope balance that needs to be achieved by tightening asylum rules on the one hand and creating an environment friendly enough for skilled migration is crucial so that social cohesion and economic growth are maintained. In such a milieu, the options before the country will define its future and determine whether it remains a top global economy.
